To all the lecturers who took the time to write an email to Dr Anette van Vuren with comments (good or bad) regarding the Library's service:

Thank you very much!

It was extremely humbling to read the kind words and I highly appreciate it. All the comments from the various librarians will be compiled into an evidence report and submitted to Prof Habib on Monday.

ISI call for papers and posters

The 57th Session of the International Statistics Institute (ISI) be hosted by South Africa at the Durban International Convention Centre (ICC) in August 2009.

This Session is historic, in that it will be the first to be held in sub-Saharan Africa since the inception of ISI sessions over 120 years ago. It presents Africa with an unprecedented opportunity to consolidate an agenda for an African Statistical Renaissance, placing statistics at the centre of informed and evidence-based decision-making .

The ISI Scientific Programme comprises four components:
Invited Paper Meetings (IPMs)

These meetings are largely finalised. The topics accepted are listed in the IPM Programme. For further information, including details and contact addresses of the organisers, please click on IPM.

Special Topic Contributed Paper Meetings (STCPMs) )
Each STCPM will be allocated a slot of two-and-a-quarter hours. The meeting may follow a standard format, but the format is flexible. An organsier may want to include a number of short presentations, or fewer more substantial papers, or may prefer to organise a panel discussion. There are still opportunities to organise an STCPM on a particular topic or aspect of statistics of one’s choice. We welcome innovation and look forward to your contributions! If you would like to discuss your ideas. For further details click on STCPM, and please contact Professor Tim Dunne, Chair, Local Programme Committee, by e-mail at: tim.dunne@uct.ac.za

Contributed Paper Meetings (CPMs)

Please consider submitting a contributed paper to the Durban conference. Contributors have until 13th April 2009 to submit or revise an abstract on any topic within the very broad field of statistical theory, methods, application or education. Contributed paper authors are typically offered 15 minutes for their presentation. We will attempt to group contributed papers together according to their content and this process will be assisted if each contributor can select one or more of the categories offered on the registration form which best suit the paper. Click on CPM to read more. We will aim to include as many of the contributed papers as possible, but when the CPMs slots are filled, contributors will be asked if they would be prepared to present a poster instead.

Posters

An alternative to offering a contributed paper is to submit an abstract for a poster, on a topic of one’s choice. Contributors of accepted submissions will be asked to bring the poster to Durban. Each poster will be allocated display space and a day of exhibition. A time slot will be allocated at which contributors can explain the research/work to interested participants and answer their questions. There will be several prizes for the best posters. We intend that this activity should be both a serious and a fun part of the conference. We particularly welcome contributions from students and other young statisticians. Click on Posters for more details
For Abstract Submissions click here

ERSA Training Workshops in early 2009

Diarise the following ERSA workshop days:

1. Training Workshop on Financial Econometrics


ERSA is pleased to announce a three day training workshop on Financial Econometrics to take place at the University of Stellenbosch from the 20 – 22 January 2009 to be followed by a second workshop from the 7 – 9 April 2009 at the same venue.

These workshops will be led by Prof Stan Hurn, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane.

Participants should have grounding in Econometrics. Eviews and Matlab software will be used in the courses.

Topics for the first workshop will include the following:
o Understanding financial data
o Modelling volatility
o Generalized method of moments estimation.

Proposed topics for the second workshop include:
o Review of Maximum likelihood: specification and estimation
o Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation
o Estimation by simulation
o Nonparametric estimation

ERSA will provide financial support to cover travel and accommodation expenses of participants. However, places are limited and access to the course is at the discretion of the course organizers.
Please email Tania Jacobs (tania.jacobs@uct.ac.za) if you would like to attend the January course.

The deadline for applications is Friday 14 November 2008.

The announcement for the April course will be sent out early in January 2009.




2. Training Workshop on Econometric Methods for Panel Data


ERSA is pleased to announce a five day training workshop on Firm Level Panel Datasets to take place at the University of Stellenbosch from the 12 January - 16 January 2009.


This workshop will be led by Dr Steven Bond at Oxford University and Dr Måns Söderbom at School of Economics at Göteborg University.

The broad outline of the course will be on econometric methods for panel data, with particular reference to firm-level panel datasets. Participants should have a grounding in Econometrics.

ERSA will provide financial support to cover travel and accommodation expenses of participants. However, places are limited and access to the course is at the discretion of the course organizers.
Please email Tania Jacobs (tania.jacobs@uct.ac.za) if you would like to attend the course. The deadline for applications is Friday 14 November 2008.

OECD forecasts a protracted economic slowdown in US, Japan and Euro area

Economic activity is expected to fall by 0.9 percent in the US next year, by 0.5 percent in the Euro area and by 0.1 percent in Japan as OECD countries enter a protracted slowdown, according to latest projections.

Presenting OECD’s gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and unemployment forecasts for these three major economies ahead of the G20 summit on the financial crisis on 15 November. Jorgen Elmeskov, Director of Policy Studies in the OECD’s Economics Department, said a high degree of uncertainty surrounds the outlook. Much depends on the depth and duration of the financial crisis, the main driver of the current recession. And he added, “The ongoing adjustment in housing markets still has a long way to go.”

GDP for the OECD countries as a whole is expected to fall 0.3 percent year-on-year in 2009 before recovering slightly to grow by 1.5 percent in 2010. The average unemployment rate in the OECD area, estimated at 5.9 percent this year, is forecast to climb to 6.9 percent next year and reach 7.2 percent in 2010. Inflation should continue to ease as economic slack puts downward pressure on prices and if, as assumed, commodity prices maintain their recent lower levels. “Against this backdrop, additional macroeconomic stimulus is needed,” said Elmeskov.

The advance projections for the US, Euro area and Japan are available on the Economic Outlook homepage.

The full Economic Outlook containing detailed forecasts and analysis for all OECD countries and other major economies will be released on 25 November 2008.

World Bank Report Suggests Strategy For African Growth Based On Mapping Of Economic Geography

History shows that severe crises can cause nations to become inward-looking, sometimes with negative consequences. The World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography, released last week, argues that policies that facilitate geographic concentration and economic integration, both within and across countries as well as within the global economy, will promote long-term growth. This is key in Africa, where accelerated growth is critical for poverty reduction in the years ahead.

“Growth does not come to every place at once, with markets favoring some places over others,” said Indermit S. Gill, Director of the report. “To encourage prosperity, governments should facilitate the geographic concentration of production, rather than fight it. But they must also institute policies that make the provision of basic needs—schools, security, streets, and sanitation—more universal.”

The report notes that Sub-Saharan Africa today faces the triple challenges of low density or scarce and scattered populations; long distances between remote areas and centers of economic activity; and deep divisions in national, religious, and ethnic terms. These dimensions of economic geography reduce connectedness between economic agents within the region, as well as with the rest of the world.

“In Sub-Saharan Africa, we can reduce the disadvantages of our poor economic geography through better urbanization, more domestic specialization, and more regional integration,” said Shanta Devarajan, Chief economist of the World Bank’s Africa Region. “Regional cooperation, labor mobility, investments in trade, communication and transport infrastructure, and peace and stability need to remain high on our agenda, even as countries work to contain the spillover effects of the global financial crisis.”

It is commonly assumed that economic activities, within a country or region, must be spread geographically to benefit the poorest and most vulnerable. However, the WDR emphasizes that trying to spread out economic activity can hinder growth and is not effective in fighting poverty. For rapid, shared growth, governments must promote economic integration which, at its core, is about the mobility of people, products, and ideas.

IASB expert panel report available

At its May 2008 meeting, the IASB announced its plans to form an expert advisory panel in response to the recommendations made by the Financial Stability Forum to assist the IASB in:

• reviewing best practices in the area of valuation techniques, and
• formulating any necessary additional guidance on valuation methods for financial instruments and related disclosures when markets are no longer active.

The discussions of the panel members have provided the Board insight into whether there is a need for additional guidance in this area.

The discussions of the panel will provide input for the IASB’s work on financial instruments and fair value measurement. The remit of the panel is how to measure the fair value of financial instruments when markets are no longer active. The panel did not discuss whether fair value is an appropriate measurement basis for a particular financial instrument or class of financial instruments.

The following documents of the panel are now available:

• the final report of the expert advisory panel
• the IASB staff summary setting out the context of the expert advisory panel report

Meeting summaries (by date)

• 10 October 2008
• 19 August 2008
• 7 August 2008
• 31 July 2008
• 17 July 2008
• 7 July 2008
• 13 June 2008

Trustee letter to G20 participants

The Trustees of the IASC Foundation issued a letter earlier this week to participants of the upcoming G20 meeting on 15 November in Washington, D.C.

The letter is quite long, so I am only providing the first section, the whole letter can be read here.

Dear Mr President
On behalf of the Trustees of the IASC Foundation, the oversight body of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), I am writing to you as the host of the upcoming meeting of leaders of G20 countries on 15 November in Washington.
We respectfully request that the meeting secretariat circulates this letter to other participants in advance of the meeting.

The purpose of this letter is to inform the leaders of G20 countries of the role that the IASB, the independent body charged with developing a single set of high quality, global accounting standards, is playing in addressing issues emanating from the credit crisis.
The Trustees understand that the issues of accounting standards and the credit crisis and the governance of our organisation may be on the meeting’s agenda.

Accounting standards and the credit crisis

The need for a global response to the credit crisis, a global problem, is evident and has been emphasised by world leaders. International co-operation is already well advanced in the field of accounting standard-setting. International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs), set by the IASB, are now used in more than 100 countries.

Most of the world’s developed and emerging economies - including nearly all of the G20 members - have made commitments to IFRSs. The IASB has been actively engaged in promoting common standards over the world and in particular in ensuring convergence among major economies. The success so far achieved should not be compromised by actions that would weaken the independence of the standard-setting process.

The role of fair value accounting in the credit crisis has received much scrutiny. The Trustees support the IASB’s efforts to establish accounting standards aimed at providing transparent and comparable financial information. To respond to the crisis, the IASB has taken urgent action to improve the application of fair value principles, where necessary, and is committed to working with the US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) to ensure globally consistent solutions.
The use of fair values has received support from both banking supervisory and investor communities. Christian Noyer, President of the Banque de France, wrote in the Banque de France’s October 2008 Financial Stability Review, “In parallel, the move to mark-to-market accounting in financial reporting has fostered transparency and a more timely recognition of risk exposures, and has contributed to sharpening market discipline.”

Read the whole letter.

Finance & Construction - biggest contributor to growth in SA

Image: LotusHead

The finance and construction industries have been identified as the most significant contributors to growth in South Africa's services sector - this according to BuaNews, the Government news portal.



Deputy Minister of Trade and Industry, Rob Davies, on Wednesday said in South Africa, service sectors contributed 74 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and 72 percent of employment."




Service sectors such as finance and construction have been particularly significant contributors to growth during the upswing which we experienced between 2001 and 2007," said Mr Davies, speaking at the Service Exporter Network Annual Meeting and Conference. He highlighted the importance of sectors such as the services sector to the growth of South Africa's economy.

Services and trade within the services sector is becoming increasing important to both developed and developing countries, Mr Davies said, adding that the sector had become inclusive of telecommunications, transportation, finance, insurance, distribution, information services and entertainment services.

The services sectors currently account for two thirds of global output, one third of global employment and nearly 20 percent of global trade, the deputy minister said.Between 2000 and 2007, global services sectors grew at an annual rate of 10.1 percent which was 1 percent more than the growth in trading goods.

The Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative of South Africa (AsgiSA) identified two important services sectors, namely Business Process Outsourcing and off-shoring (BPO&) and tourism.

Read More

IMF releases

Here are the latest IMF releases:

Policy Papers

Mongolia-Assessment Letter for the Asian Development Bankr:
Summary: Assessment Letters or Statements may be prepared for member countries with Fund-supported programs; receiving Fund emergency assistance; with staff-monitored programs; or surveillance-only cases. They are typically produced for use by the country with multilateral or bilateral donors or creditors, in particular the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions.

Surveys

IMF Urges Stimulus as Global Growth Marked Down Sharply
The IMF urges countries to stimulate their economies in the face of a bigger-than-expected slowdown in the global economy triggered by recent financial turmoil. In its latest forecast for world economic growth, the IMF sharply revises its growth projections downward.

IMF Agrees $15.7 Billion Loan to Bolster Hungary's Finances
The IMF's Executive Board approves a $15.7 billion loan for Hungary as part of a program designed to ease financial market stress in the East European country while supporting longer-run economic goals of reforming government finances and the banking sector.

Working Papers

Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries
Author/Editor: Husain, Aasim M.; Tazhibayeva, Kamilya; Ter-Martirosyan, Anna
Summary: This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.

Country Reports

The Kingdom of Swaziland: 2008 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director

Grenada: First Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility Arrangement, Request for Waiver of Performance Criterion, Financing Assurance Review, Request for Rephasing and Extension of the Arrangement, and Request for Augmentation-Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion

McKinsey Quarterly Newsletter available

The McKinsey Quarterly newsletter is now available.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Google’s view on the future of business: An interview with CEO Eric Schmidt
In a compelling video interview, Google CEO Eric Schmidt reflects on the coming transformation of strategy, competition, business models, and management. This piece is just one example of the wide range of new content we are now posting on the reengineered mckinseyquarterly.com, including video, audio, and interactive exhibits, as well as more contributions from outside McKinsey, including letters from readers. Our redesigned site also makes it easier than ever to find content, particularly on specific regions and big ideas.

Also new this month
STRATEGY
Helping ‘green’ products grow
When customers reach the cash register, they often forget their eco-friendly attitudes. Businesses can do a lot more to help would-be green consumers walk their walk.

CORPORATE FINANCE
How climate change could affect corporate valuations
Efforts to reduce carbon emissions could profoundly affect the valuations of many companies, but executives don’t seem to be paying attention.

MARKETING
What’s new with the Chinese consumer
Ten million new ones enter the market eachyear, and the hundreds of millions already there are evolving rapidly. Ongoing McKinsey research examines these trends.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
How IT can cut carbon emissions
Information and communications technologies are becomingmajor emitters of greenhouse gases. But technology canalso help reduce emissions across many industries.

FINANCIAL SERVICES
The missed opportunity for US health insurers
Most health care payers now convert less than 10 percentof the customers who move to a new product class—for example, when they become eligible for Medicare. That’s not good enough.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
A fresh wind for offshoring infrastructure management
While other offshoring services have grown rapidly, the management and maintenance of core infrastructure from afar has been slow to gain traction. It may be about to take off.

SARS regulations

The South African Revenue Service has released the Second Income Tax Draft Regulations in terms of section 75B of the Income Tax Act, 1962, for public comment.

Comments can be emailed to Ms Catinka Smit at csmit@sars.gov.za by 14 November 2008.

Due to time constraints, it will not be possible to respond individually to comments received. All comments will however be fully considered. The document is also available here: www.pmg.org.za/gazettes

CALL FOR PAPERS – International Journal of Emerging Markets

The International Journal of Emerging Markets has a Special Issue on Changing Patterns of Global Growth .

The credit crunch, increases in food prices and the oil crisis have all led to great uncertainty in the global economy. However, some countries have achieved higher growth whereas standards of living have been predicted to plummet in other economies.

A special issue of International Journal of Emerging Markets sets out to analyse the following themes:

• The role of India, China and other emerging markets in insulating world economic growth from US financial crisis
• How the US financial crisis is affecting emerging markets
• Strategies for companies from emerging markets on how to cope with the current crisis
• Is there a role for China and India and other emerging economies in insulating the global economy?
• Should policies be domestic or global?
• How should emerging markets cope with the global financial crisis?

Types of paper
Both empirical as well as theory building papers will be considered. As the topic lies at the intersection of several scholarly domains, papers can draw from several different fields such as organisation theory, strategy, international business, technology and invasion management and business law. Aspects can also encompass other areas including entrepreneurship, operations research and organisational behaviour.

Submission guidelines and timeline
All manuscripts should be prepared according to the author guidelines located at: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/ijoem.htm.

All papers will be double blind reviewed following the journal’s normal review procedure. (This journal is not accredited)

Submissions to International Journal of Emerging Markets must be made using the ScholarOne Manuscript Central system: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/ijoem

Deadline for submissions: 31 January 2009

The guest editors for the special issue are John McManus and David Floyd. Please direct any enquiries to Dr McManus at jmcmanus@lincoln.ac.uk

Latest news from IASB

Summary of IASC Foundation Trustees’ meeting – October 2008
The Trustees of the IASC Foundation today announced the conclusions of their meeting in Beijing, China, on 9 and 10 October 2008.

IASB Work Plan updated
The IASB today published an updated version of its Work Plan as approved during the June Board meeting. The updated plan shows the projected timetable for the publication of due process documents and final standards.

Annual Report 2006 now available
The IASC Foundation has published its Annual Report for 2006. The report provides a comprehensive account of the Foundation’s activities over the past year, and includes audited financial statements.

Library closing early on 12th December

Image: salssa

Please note: All UJ Libraries will close at 13h00 on Friday 12 December 2008

New books

The new titles that came during the last two weeks are:

1. Financial Econometrics by Peijie Wang

KINGSWAY BOOKS LEVEL 1 EEP WANG

2. Money and Monetary Stystems: selcted essays of Filippo Cesarano

KINGSWAY BOOKS LEVEL 1 EEC CESA

3. Main Economic Indicators, Vol 2008/8 August by the OECD

KINGSWAY BOOKS LEVEL 1 EE8 MAIN

If you would like me to put aside any of the above title, please let me know.

University news from the West

From campus to Capitol and back againIn America, it is common for academics to play a prominent political role. Jon Marcus reports



Still no call from No 10?

In the UK, the gulf between the political and the academic worlds seems all but unbreachable while Americans flit easily between lecture halls and halls of power. Matthew Reisz examines why Whitehall seems so inhospitable to scholars, while Jon Marcus looks at why Washington is so accommodating...

FE colleges plan low-cost degrees at bachelor level Vocational university envisaged as a way to meet expansion targets

Teaching ‘unsuited’ to the third millennium Personal relationships are lost in modern university ‘maelstrom’, v-c warns

‘Come out of the woodwork now’: MP’s challenge to standards critics Commons committee chair calls for evidence on ‘dumbing down’ as inquiry starts work

To get ahead, watch brows and britches Etiquette guide for staff covers personal grooming, dress and fine dining

Pick ’n’ mix not so sweet Many years ago, Frank Burnet fought for modularisation and credit transfer. The war was won, but the victory was pyrrhic Property magnetMoving house is the perfect way to begin a new chapter of your life, says Mary Warnock, even if those around you think you’re mad Devil’s advocate Milton expert Stanley Fish refuses to demonise the administrator and warns against influencing the moral character of students

A closed book to outsiders
Japan and South Korea want their universities to attract overseas academic talent, but doubts persist about their readiness for the global market. Michael Fitzpatrick reports

No change in ranking for Poppleton
For three decades, Laurie Taylor's fictitious university and its characters have mocked the absurdities of campus life, writes Matthew Reisz

You can lead cattle to water but you can't make them think
A lesson in animal behaviour helped Bob Blaisdell improve classroom comforts and student learning

The world’s top 1,000 business schools: See our exclusive supplement for a report on the top business schools around the globe. Click here for more.

US: Obama and higher education: promises and problems
Arlene Cherwin
With a "Yes we can" attitude and a five point platform for higher education, President-elect Obama represents a changing face for higher education and Americans are hopeful. Obama's platform targets loan programmes, access to higher education, community colleges, science and technology, and affirmative action.

CANADA: Benefiting from Bologna
Philip Fine
The Bologna process, the initiative that tries to smooth the jagged edges off Europe's differing degree and credit structure, has caught the world's attention in a big way. From the Caribbean to Canada, from China to Australia, the plan designed to solve a European problem and that then brought in bordering countries now has nations far beyond those borders looking at some academic retooling.

IRAQ: Killing academics is a war crime
Brendan O'Malley
The international community should explicitly recognise crimes against educators as crimes against humanity or war crimes, a conference of 150 Iraqi ministers, MPs, university presidents and international experts was told last week. Hosted in Paris by Unesco, in collaboration with the Qatari Foundation, the conference heard that more than 250 academics had been killed in a "campaign of terror" since the fall of Saddam Hussein, in targeted attacks.

GLOBAL: Saudi Arabia pays academics best, China worst
Karen MacGregor
Academics in Saudi Arabia are the best paid on earth while scholars in China are the worst off, according to a pioneering just-published global study of salaries conducted by the Boston College Center for International Higher Education in the US. The average academic salary across 15 countries surveyed is US$4,050 a month in purchasing power parity dollars - and lecturers can expect to earn triple their country's per capita estimate - International Comparison of Academic Salaries: An exploratory study.

NEW ZEALAND: Final Maori institution claim settled
John Gerritsen
The New Zealand government has settled the last of the claims made against it by Maori tertiary institutions for capital funding that will put them on an equal footing with other public tertiary institutions. At $50.6 million (US$29.8 million), the figure agreed with Te Wananga o Raukawa last month adds to nearly $10 million already paid to the institution and brings the total value of settlements for the three public wananga to $169 million.

GLOBAL: IFC opens private education forum
The International Finance Corporation has established an online discussion on what it calls "the evolving regulatory context for private education in emerging economies". Dr Svava Bjarnason, a senior education specialist with the IFC, says the purpose is to provide a forum for stakeholders to discuss key questions relating to the evolving nature of regulation of private education.

GLOBAL: Education under attack
Brendan O'Malley
A noticeable rise in targeted attacks on education staff, students and institutions in a number of countries constitutes a highly damaging assault on the provision of and access to education in the places worst affected. The dramatic increase in deliberate attacks in recent years and the subsequent loss of life are the result of an abhorrent tactic of sacrificing the lives of innocent young people and those trying to help them develop their potential for the sake of political or ideological aims.

GREECE: Far-reaching European Court ruling
Makki Marseilles
A controversial decision by the European Court of Justice is likely to have far-reaching effects on higher education in Greece. The court's decision, based on the 89/48 EC directive, held that the Greek rules on recognition of diplomas are contrary to community legislation. Moreover, the court ruled that only member states where a diploma was awarded may verify its basis, thereby denying any form of control, academic or administrative, to the host member states.

HE RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY
GLOBAL: Is internationalisation on the right track?
"As we progress into the 21st century, the international dimension of higher education is becoming increasingly important and at the same time, more and more complex. There are new actors, new rationales, new programmes, new regulations, and the new context of globalisation," writes respected internationalisation scholar Professor Jane Knight in the latest edition of the Canadian journal Academic Matters, titled The Global University.

GLOBAL: International graduate student challenges
Globalisation has embraced the university, as it has other sectors. Many academics appreciate the benefits that cross-cultural exchange allows as the ivory tower turns global. Knowledge now belongs to a worldwide arena in which we are all connected, writes Dr Fengying Xu in the latest edition of the Canadian journal Academic Matters. But "there are enormous challenges for teaching, studying and research inside this globally-interdependent context".

As Economy Wavers, Online Enrollments Climb
Annual study finds double-digit gains in online education, in part due to fuel costs, surprising some who predicted the rate would eventually flatten.

'Condescending Negativism' and Other Transgressions Against Students
Professors increasingly bemoan student "incivility" in the classroom. But provosts discuss the steps colleges should take to deal with faculty members who mistreat students.

Encouraging Interdisciplinarity
Consortium of research universities considers steps to support cross-departmental research by making changes at faculty and administrative levels.

Making Higher Ed Research Matter
Association of scholars who study academe contemplate ways to make their work more relevant to those who shape policy.

Online Courses Offer Physical And Financial Access To Higher Education steven bell
A convenient way for busy students to squeeze education into their packed schedules, online courses are offering the added benefit of spending less on transportation, making education a little more affordable in a time of record high gas prices. This fall, area colleges are reporting rapid growth in enrollment of online courses, and administrators say whether the institutes are offering computer-based lessons or setting up new learning sites in communities away from Springfield, it's all about making education more accessible -- physically and financially -- to students.

New ERSA working papers

ERSA has released new working papers - and some are from UJ academics!

• Revisiting independence and stochastic dominance for compound lotteries Alexander Zimper

We establish mathematical equivalence between independence of irrelevant alternatives and monotonicity with respect to first order stochastic dominance. This formal equivalence result between the two principles is obtained under two key conditions. Firstly, for all m E N, each principle is de.ned on the domain of compound lotteries with compoundness level m. Secondly, the standard concept of reduction of compound lotteries applies.

• Modeling the Rand-Dollar Future Spot Rates: The Kalman Filter Approach Lumengo Bonga-Bonga

A number of studies have contended that it is challenging to explain exchange rate movement with macroeconomic fundamentals. A naive model such as a random walk forecasts exchange rate movements more reliably than existing structural models. This paper confirms that it is possible to improve the forecast of structural exchange rate models, by explicitly accounting for parameter instability when estimating these models. Making use of the Kalman filter as an estimation method that accounts for time-varying coefficients in the presence of parameter instability, this paper indicates that forward exchange rates with different maturities predict the future spot exchange rates more reliably than the random walk model for the Rand exchange rates.

• Costly Tax Enforcement and Financial Repression Rangan Gupta and Emmanuel Ziramba

Using an overlapping generations production-economy model characterised by financial repression, purposeful government expenditures and tax collection costs, we analyse whether financial repression can be explained by the cost of raising taxes. We show that with public expenditures affecting utility of the agents, modest costs of tax collection tend to result in financial repression being pursued as an optimal policy by the consolidated government. However, when public expenditures are purposeless, the above result only holds for relatively higher costs of tax collection. But, more importantly, costs of tax collection cannot produce a monotonic increase in the reserve requirements. Of critical importance in this regard, are the weights the consumer assigns to the public good in the utility function and the size of the government.

• Will availing credit incentives to Zimbabwean farmers trigger a maize output response? Sophia Musuna and Edwin Muchapondwa

This paper evaluates the impact of credit availability on communal and commercial sector maize output in Zimbabwe. This is important given the increased use of concessionary credit for agriculture as a policy strategy to increase agricultural output and food security, in response to the disruption caused by controversial land reform. The results show that communal sector maize output does not respond to credit availability. Neither does it respond to area under cultivation. Rainfall is the single most important driver of communal agriculture. The commercial sector responds to credit incentives albeit with a very low elasticity. Therefore, credit availability is a rather impotent device for enhancing maize output and, generally, agricultural output in Zimbabwe. Since most of the newly resettled farmers typically operate like communal farmers, both the land reform programme and concessionary credit for agriculture will not be likely to increase agricultural output. An urgent review of the beneficiaries of the controversial land reform programme is needed to ensure that only profit maximizing farmers will have their landownership confirmed, while unproductive farmers are replaced, if the agricultural sector is to help revive the Zimbabwean economy. Thus, commercialisation - rather than communalisation - of the agricultural sector is the appropriate strategy to trigger an increased agricultural output response.

Web presentation introducing the discussion paper on Financial Statement Presentation

In September 2008 the IASB and FASB jointly published a discussion paper on Financial Statement Presentation. The document is open for public comment until 14 April 2009.

Stephen Cooper, Member of the Board, together with Denise Gomez, project manager, will introduce the discussion paper on Financial Statement Presentation on 13 November 2008.

During the presentation participants are welcome to submit questions via the Web presentation facilities only. You need to register to be able to access the Web presentation. You can do this now or any time before the presentation. If you have registered for the event you will be sent a reminder 30 minutes before the start of the presentation with a direct link.

The presentation inclusive of the Q&A sessions will be recorded and made available on the project Web pages shortly after.

Registration
For the convenience of our constituents in the different time zones we have scheduled two time slots for the Web presentation:
13 November 2008 at 10 am (London time) - Register or log in here
13 November 2008 at 3pm (London time) - Register or log in here

Dialling in
If you would like to listen to the presentation over the phone, please register via the appropriate link below. Please note that questions can only be submitted using the online facilities.
13 November 2008 at 10 am (London time) - Register or log in here
13 November 2008 at 3pm (London time) - Register or log in here

Technical issues
Your computer must allow pop-ups. In case of doubt, please contact your technical department for information.
To access the presentation your computer must have Windows Media Player or Real Player installed.
For technical questions, please contact Chris Samarakkody on +44 (0)20 7246 6444 .

Marketing Financial Services to the over 50's

Thought that only "young people" or as some of my colleagues say, "the kids" use social networks?

Not true, Dick Stroud, an expert on using interactive channels to communicate with the over-50s market, posted a blog on his website that includes a link to his presentation on the subject of marketing financial services to the 50+ age group.

Why should it matter? Because 11-12% of SA is between 50 and 65, which represents a large portion of the population.


Here are some interesting snippets from his presentation.

• Use of online banking is distributed evenly over the 25-55+ age demographic
• More than 30% of 50+ Internet users search for brokerage information (this is significantly higher than any other age group)
• The 50+ users have an average of 42% longer viewing time of web pages - this means they actually READ the information on the page.

Dick also gives five walk-aways:
"1. We spend lots of time talking about the 50+ market but most of the time we are really talking about the 60+ - probably the 65+ and in many instance the 70+ market. Certainly in the Finance Industry."
2. The consumer’s property is critical to so much of their future livelihood. I know that is an obvious thing to say but it really, really, really is."
3. How little we understand about the real reasons why older people behave the way they do. So much of the time we view the older market through the corporate window of generalisations and how we would like older consumers to behave"
4. There are large country differences, especially with regard to the post work finance available to people. But, there is a hell of lot in common between countries, certainly within Europe."
5. The impact of the credit crunch on consumer’s choice of channels to funnel their hard earned cash has probably changed forever. I don’t think the Financial Services industry has started to come to terms with that fact."

New StatsSA releases

P0351 - Tourism and Migration, August 2008
The total number of foreign travellers who visited South Africa from Africa, overseas and unspecified countries, arriving through all ports of entry during August 2008 was 752 942.

The August 2008 figure represents an decline of 4,5% as compared with the August 2007 figure of 788 117. During August 2008, 326 075 arrivals were recorded for South African residents while the total number of those departing was 340 057.

P0043 - Statistics of Liquidations and insolvencies, September 2008
The total number of liquidations recorded for September 2008 decreased by 35,3% (from 507 to 328) when compared with September 2007, mainly due to the public-service strike in June 2007 which created a backlog resulting in more liquidations being processed during September 2007.

The total number of liquidations recorded for the nine months ended September 2008 decreased by 4,1% (from 2 465 to 2 365) when compared with the same period last year.
The total number of insolvencies recorded for August 2008 increased by 17,7% (from 198 to 233) when compared with August 2007.

The total number of insolvencies recorded for the eight months ended August 2008 increased by 47,8% (from 1 276 to 1 886) compared with the eight months ended August 2007.