Obama's victory and the impact on the economy

Moneyweb has published an article outlining analysts' comments on Obama's election as president of the USA:

MARKETS

ALAN LANCZ, PRESIDENT, ALAN B. LANCZ & ASSOCIATES INC, AN INVESTMENT ADVISORY FIRM, TOLEDO, OHIO:
"A lot of this (Obama win) was already discounted in the market. You never know what's going to happen but basically I think any follow-through rally will be unsustainable. You might get a little euphoria with a big victory, but I don't think it's going to be a meter-changer."

WILLIAM LARKIN, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, CABOT MONEY MANAGEMENT, SALEM, MASSACHUSETTS:
"There is an uncertainty that is now behind us: worries about the election being too close or drawn out. People will be looking to see how Obama puts his cabinet together and the people he puts in place to deal with the housing problem. For Treasury Secretary, I am hoping he brings in a real heavy hitter."

EDDY CHEN, FUND MANAGER, PRUDENTIAL SECURITIES INVESTMENT TRUST, TAIWAN:
"The stock market has already factored in the results of the U.S. election to a certain extent, and so we should see much smaller rebounds in the coming days. The most important reaction we are looking at right now is still how Wall Street behaves in response to this Obama victory."

KIRBY DALEY, SENIOR STRATEGIST, NEWEDGE GROUP, HONG KONG:
"The knee-jerk complacency rally in Asia to an Obama win is likely creating an opportunity to sell. The bottom line is economic fundamentals in the U.S. are deteriorating faster than the market can keep up with. And there is very little an Obama administration can do to shield Asia from the effects of this downturn."

ROB HENDERSON, HEAD MARKET ECONOMICS, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK:
"Well, it can't be negative for markets. It's a vote for change and has to inject a degree of optimism that America can again reinvent itself. It's not a good time for anyone to be elected President given the problems there. An early guide will be who he picks for the major positions, particularly Treasury Secretary."

PETER KENNY, MANAGING DIRECTOR AT KNIGHT EQUITY MARKETS IN JERSEY CITY, NEW JERSEY:
"The market was putting in an Obama bounce earlier today, and we are seeing a continuation of that rally around the world.
"Clearly the market was anticipating a fairly substantial referendum on change and an Obama presidency and a different path. The market called it and the market was right.
"If you drill down where you found sector strength today it was in raw materials, alternative energy, infrastructure plays -- that shows the market predicted an Obama victory.
"This will be the first election in several cycles where there will likely not be any contestation by the losing party about vote count, voter fraud. This will mean less uncertainty and give Obama more of a mandate to move forward and to put in place a series of policies quickly, for it to be a smooth, accelerated transition."

HAAG SHERMAN, CO-FOUNDER AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, SALIENT PARTNERS, HOUSTON, TEXAS:
"Ultimately fundamentals will dictate where the markets go. At least in the near term you will see a more ebullient mood as it relates to the worldwide geopolitical scene with Obama's election and a more optimistic view than what we have had over the past few years.
"I think the Treasury market is reflecting concern over one party controlling government and what the ramifications of that will be, but I think the equity markets will be cheered by Obama's election."

MARK FREEMAN, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AND PORTFOLIO MANAGER, WESTWOOD HOLDINGS GROUP IN DALLAS, TEXAS:
"Ultimately, what the markets like is clarity, and that's what they are getting here. At the margin that's a positive and was reflected in today's price action."
"Over the longer term, issuance is what comes to bear on the Treasury market but shorter term the market will focus on the more political or non-fundamental factors and how successful all the plans that are being implemented are in terms of their impact on the credit markets."

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, TRADE:

KIM YOON-GEE, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DAEISHIN ECONOMIC RESEARCH IN SEOUL:
"What we worry about is the Democrats tend to put their policy priority on protecting the U.S.'s own economy, which may spread protectionism around the world.
"In light of the current situation when global cooperation is highly required, I do not believe the United States would exercise as strong a protectionist position as before.
"Under Obama's leadership, the U.S. is expected to speed up restructuring, so that financial markets will stabilize sooner than expected."

LEE SANG-JAE, ECONOMIST, HYUNDAI SECURITIES IN SEOUL:
"Obama's victory is good news for export-dependent Asian countries. There are a lot of expectations that the global economy will turn better.
"The new U.S. government is expected to help ease geopolitical risks globally, which will further stabilize oil prices. As seen during the Clinton administration, the U.S. trade deficit could narrow again and help reduce concerns over the global economic imbalance.
"There are concerns that Obama's government will be less pro-free trade and the U.S.-South Korea FTA deal would hit a snag, but we'll have to see how it works out."

ABHEEK BARUA, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT HDFC BANK, NEW DELHI:
"I think there were some niggling worries on Obama's stance on offshoring given the current recessionary forces blowing over the U.S. and the stance he may take. But on balance, I think there is much more faith is his bringing about a comprehensive change in the global economic architecture which is the need of the hour in fighting this global crisis.
"Global markets and the world economy are taking a huge sentiment booster from Obama's win as can be seen from the price actions today."

U.S. ECONOMIC POLICY

MARK KONYN, CEO OF ALLIANZ RCM ASIA PACIFIC IN HONG KONG
"We expect to see fiscal spending. Obviously there's some fear that the raising of taxes under a Democratic outcome as opposed to Republican will be more severe. But I think overall there needs to be more fiscal stimulus. In terms of how we were looking at markets we were pretty neutral on the outcome of the election.
"Markets like to see a decisive outcome. It's another area of uncertainty eliminated. But I think markets were bottoming out in any event."

GLENN B. MAGUIRE, ASIA PACIFIC CHIEF ECONOMIST, SOCIETE GENERALE, HONG KONG:
"You are likely to see Congress announce a second stimulus package, somewhere between $300 billion and $500 billion. It will probably be more focused on injecting money directly into the economy via infrastructure projects or tax breaks. Though Obama has enormous challenges, a $1 trillion plus deficit to deal with, ultimately part of the jigsaw is stabilizing and bolstering U.S. consumer sentiment. And if that happens its a positive for Asia."

DARIUSZ KOWALCZYK, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, CFC SEYMOUR, HONG KONG:
"The U.S. economy is still going into recession.
"There will continue to be monetary easing and fiscal loosening. This would happen under both presidents. The only difference is what the spending would go for ... but in terms of the budget position it would be pretty much similar, so I don't really think in the medium to long term it matters much for the markets."

TOMOMI YAMASHITA, FUND MANAGER, SHINKIN ASSET MANAGEMENT, TOKYO:
"His plan to tax higher income earners may dampen incentives a bit and this might limit U.S. competitiveness, and as far as the currency market is concerned a Republican victory might have been better."

ENERGY, COMMODITIES MARKETS

TOBIAS MERATH, HEAD OF COMMODITIES RESEARCH, CREDIT SUISSE, SINGAPORE:
"The victory for Obama will bring some certainty to the financial markets. And that's why currency analysts think that the dollar might rally for a slightly longer period. That could be negative for commodities in an indirect way. The direct impact of the Obama victory on commodities would be minimal."

JIM RITTERBUSCH, PRESIDENT OF RITTERBUSCH & ASSOCIATES IN THE UNITED STATES:
"I don't see any initial impact as far as energy trade is concerned. We already had a big rally in the oil market yesterday and it will take a few days to a few weeks before we get better clarity as to some of the policies that Obama plans to roll out.
"But by and large, this is a favorable longer-term development for the U.S. economy so with that in mind, this is basically a good thing."